Seasonal forecast skill of Arctic sea ice area in a dynamical forecast system

Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill?

Arctic sea ice thickness is thought to be an important predictor of Arctic sea ice extent. However, coupled seasonal forecast systems do not generally use sea ice thickness observations in their initialization and are therefore missing a potentially important source of additional skill. To investigate how large this source is, a set of ensemble potential predictability experiments with a global...

Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast

[1] From 1953 to 2006, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the melt season in September has declined sharply. All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) show declining Arctic ice cover over this period. However, depending on the time window for analysis, none or very few individual model simulations show trends comparable to obs...

A Markov Model for Seasonal Forecast of Antarctic Sea Ice*

A linear Markov model has been developed to simulated and predict the short-term climate change in the Antarctic, with particular emphasis on sea ice variability. Seven atmospheric variables along with sea ice were chosen to define the state of the Antarctic climate, and the multivariate empirical orthogonal functions of these variables were used as the building blocks of the model. The predict...

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following

Ncep Dynamical Seasonal Forecast System 2000

JULY 2002 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | I n April 2000, a new dynamical seasonal prediction system was introduced at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP; the acronyms used in this paper are summarized in the appendix). The transition to the new system was hastened by a computer fire in September 1999 and subsequent changeover from a Cray C90 to an IBM-SP computer system....